Pollster Ben Ephson will serve the research community and its members much better if he publishes his methodology and regional breakdowns with regards to his pre-election polls rather than leave his audience grappling with his headline numbers, Bright Simons, Honorary Vice President of IMANI Ghana, has said.
Mr Ephson’s recent polls predicted a win for President John Mahama and the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) by 52.4 per cent.
The polls, which have attracted heavy opposition from the New Patriotic Party (NPP), gave Nana Akufo-Addo of the NPP 45.9 per cent. All the five other candidates – Jacob Osei Yeboah, an independent candidate, Dr Papa Kwesi Nduom of the Progressive People’s Party (PPP), Nana Konadu Agyeman-Rawlings (National Democratic Party), Edward Mahama (People’s National Convention), and Ivor Greenstreet (Convention People’s Party) – lumped together would garner a measly 1.7 per cent, according to the polls.
Mr Simons wrote on his Facebook page on Tuesday November 29: “Mr. Ephson has thrown a spanner into the works. Whilst there has long been concern over his reluctance to release the methodological framework behind his polls, and the recurrent deviation of his numbers from actual results, he does have a track record of picking winners in the presidential elections in Ghana. The problem obviously is that he is so far off the trend predicted by every other poll (and yes, I have reviewed every single one by every credible organisation since October) that one has to wonder.”
He added: “At this stage, if one assigns the appropriate weight to the Ephson poll based on his historical track record, and proceeds therefrom to compute a crude 'meta analysis' of all credible polls conducted to date in connection with the 2016 general elections, the NPP's chance of winning drops from about 75% to about 55% (the reason being that there are several 'first time poll conductors' in the current season). How I wish Synovate would release a poll. Of course, this is purely the outcome of one prediction approach. There are those who have used qualitative mechanisms to come to entirely different predictions. I am confidentially and reliably informed that foreign diplomatic missions are leaning towards the view that the NDC would be retained.
“My bias is naturally towards the quantitative, and I am intrigued by the alignment of so many polls, I do, however, acknowledge the limitations. From a purely textbook perspective, seeing different polls conducted by very different entities generating such similar insights can be exhilarating.
“For example, multiple polls suggest that the NPP is on course for its strongest showing in the three northern regions to date, but that its performance in Asante shall be relatively less impressive. There is a similar convergence on the prospect of a less than impressive showing in Central Region, but a strong uptick in Eastern and Brong Ahafo. The NDC is expected to maintain its hold on Volta with virtually no serious drop in performance, and may actually consolidate in Western. Greater Accra is the scene for the most remarkable showdown of all. The race is apparently a dead-heat, though the NPP is tipped by multiple polls to edge out a clean finish.
“There are some nuances in survey design that may trip some results. In one interesting poll, a flagship series has as the key actual question being responded to being which party the respondent 'believes will win' as opposed to who they 'will vote for'. It is far from obvious how much emphasis ought to be placed on design in coming up with a composite margin of error/confidence interval for these survey results when computing a 'meta outcome'.
“It is for all these reasons and many others that Mr Ephson would serve the research community and its members, even those operating primarily within political parties, much better if he publishes his methodology and regional breakdowns in the popular press rather than leave his audience grappling with his headline numbers.”
Source: Classfmonline
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Four personalities are causing the woes of Ghana: Kwesi Pratt, Ephson, Bature, and Jacob Allotey. Ghana is importing salt, cassava, plantain, water, electricity and even cocoa from Ivory Coast, yet these people are supporting Mahama for their 'daily bread' as if there is no tomorrow for future generation.
If you dont know, let me remind n refresh ur brain since it has gone kangol, Your trusted pollster, predicted victory to Hillary Clinton, the outcome we all know, Ben Ephson is a paid armchair lotto pollster, he is deceiving you to believe u are winning , please dont hesitate to check ur BP after DEC 7
WHY DIDN'T THIS SO-CALLED VICE PRESIDENT OF IMANI-GHANA QUESTION THE METHODOLOGY USED BY EIU AND OTHERS THAT EVEN THOUGH NOT IN GHANA PREDICTED WIN FOR NPP?. YOU DON'T TRUST YOUR OWN WHO IS IN THE COUNTRY,UNDERSTAND LOCAL PATTERNS OF VOTE AND CAN EVEN GO ROUND THE WHOLE COUNTRY. IF SO-CALLED LEARNED PEOPLE CAN BE HYPOCRITICAL TO THIS EXTEND,THEN WE AS GHANAIANS HAVE A PROBLEM.
OFFFUUII HAVE YOU BEEN ASKING THE SAME QUESTION FROM THE OTHER FAKE POLLSTERS WHO HAVE BEEN PREDICTING FOR YOUR PREFERRED CANDIDATE THE 74 YEAR OLD? CHEAP PROPAGANDA
UNCLE BEN'S POLL IS ALL WE WERE WAITING FOR!! THE GUY HAS NEVER GOTTEN IT WRONG AND HE UNDERSTANDS THE ISSUES AND MOTIVES OF VOTERS.NANA ADDO CAN NO MORE SLEEP WITHOUT HAVING NIGHTMARES ABOUT DEC. 7.MAHAMA WILL RETIRE ADDO AND GIVE HIM AN AWARD DURING HIS 7TH YEAR OF 2 TERMS.ARTHUR KENNEDY HAS STARTED WRITING HIS BOOK ABOUT THE ELEPHANT!!!
he has nothing to publish, that guy is an armchair researcher, he just guess and propounds any figures that's all.
Has other polls published their methology. I have also been wondering which sampling scheme other polls also used to draw their samples for data collection. How the respondents were selected and the margin of error associated with other polls. To be fair ask all other pollsters to publish their complete report so we can criticize their methodology.
Bright don't be surprised, the general public does not need to see the methodology of Epson to understand his polls. If a stomach Journalist like Ben Ephson who is a defender of the NDC in all matters will come out to tell us that NDC will win this year elections, that is no surprise. The poor man Journalist is only doing the bidding of his pay Masters. Ben Ephson lost credibility among the many sensible people of this country longtime ago. Check what he publishes in his so called newspaper and you will understand. The man has been hungry for a very longtime. I can pity him. But Mr Epson always remember this. Good name is better than riches. One day, one day, you will regret selling your birth right for pittance from politicians whose only aim is use you and damp you when you become ***barred word***.