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Government�s macro-economic target for 2012 is threatened by the liquidity injection associated with the single spine salary, arrears, and fuel and utility subsidies. In the 2012 budget, government plans to achieve real non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.6 per cent; real overall GDP growth of 9.4 per cent; average inflation of 8.7 per cent; end-period inflation of 8.5 per cent; overall budget deficit equivalent to 4.8 per cent of GDP; and Gross international reserves of not less than three months of import cover for goods and services. The Economy Times has learnt that the recent developments in fiscal operations could pose risks to the inflation outlook. Year on year inflation measured by the consumer price index dropped slightly for the 12 month period ended September to 9.4 percent from the 9.5 percent recorded in August. The monthly inflation change rate registered -1.5 percent, which meant that the general price level declined by 1.5 percent between August and September 2012 compared to a decline of 0.8 percent between July and August 2012. The food and non-food beverages group recorded an average year-on-year inflation rate of 4.4 percent, the same as in August 2012. The non-food group recorded a year-on-year inflation rate of 12.4 percent. But the Central Bank is very optimistic that government will maintain fiscal discipline in its expenditure so that unplanned expenses are not incurred in a way of complementing the monetary policy stance of the Bank. The Central Bank�s end of year inflation forecast indicates that inflation will continue to remain within the target band. Provisional estimates for 2012 showed a growth of 7.1 percent over the 2011 revised estimates. The Services sector, which is also the largest sector, recorded the highest growth of 8.8 percent, followed by Industry (7.0%), with Agriculture recording the lowest growth of 2.6 percent. Though the estimates show an improvement in the growth of the Agriculture sector compared to 2011 (0.8%), its contribution to the economy continues to decline, with its share reducing from 25.6 percent of GDP to 23.1 percent. Crops, however, remains the largest activity in the economy with a share of 19.3 percent of GDP. Industry, the second largest sector with a share of 27.6 percent, declined in growth from a record high of 41.1 percent in 2011 to 7.0 percent in 2012. Decline in crude oil production, coupled with slow growth in manufacturing and production and distribution of water, contributed to the drastic reduction in the growth of the sector. The Services sector remains the largest, contributing about half (49.3%) to GDP. Five of the activities in this sector recorded growth rates above 10 percent. These sectors are: Hotels and Restaurants; Transport and Storage; Financial Intermediation; Information and Communication; and Business Services.