Election Trend Against Mills

For the first time since the campaign against the candidature of President John Evans Atta Mills to lead the ruling party in 2012 began, a group has put forth what passes for an empirical analysis to support the call to replace the old professor as leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). In a statement authored by a certain Paul Boateng of a group calling itself Change Mills, a Presidential Elections Trend (PET) analysis was used to explain why the ruling party risks going into opposition if it does not change a candidate for the 2012 polls. Elections over the years in Ghana, the group disclosed, have showed a percentage reduction in the votes of winners during second term polls and given that President Mills won by a very slim margin of votes in the first term, any reduction in consonance with the empirical trend would see the NDC going into opposition. Delegates, the group counseled, should be mindful of the trend and vote for Nana Konadu Agyeman Rawlings in the July party congress in Sunyani. �In 1992, former President JJ Rawlings had 58.4% to beat Prof Adu Boahen (30%) �In 1996, former President JJ Rawlings contested again and won with 57.4% to beat the then Candidate J.A. Kufuor. This time the margin reduced by 1%. �In 2000, former President Kufuor won by 56.9% to beat Prof Mills to become President. �In 2004, former President Kufuor again had 52.45% to retain power for the NPP but his previous percentage reduced by 4%. �In 2008, President JEA Mills managed to beat Nana Akufo Addo after the third runoff with 50.23%. According to the group, we must expect a reduction in the next elections going by the aforementioned trend. Considering the rather unusual situation of President Mills- disunity in the party, factionalism, cronyism and total neglect of party ideology, vision, social justice, principles of probity and accountability- the grouping maintained it would be foolhardy for delegates to vote for him. Continuing, the Change Mills advocates stated that �if the delegates decide to elect him to lead the NDC in 2012, there is a possibility that his previous marks will be reduced and if 0.24% is dropped then, NDC will go back into opposition in 2012.� Making a case for a Nana Konadu Agyeman Rawlings� candidature, the group declared that the spirit of the party can only be rekindled with her choice as the flag-bearer. The leadership of President Mills, according to the group, has failed to unite the NDC, adding that the party structures have not functioned properly since the Prof became president. �The time is now for revivalism. It is time for reorientation and new dedication to our party�s future,� the Change Mills advocates asserted. As the ruling party inches towards the watershed congress in Sunyani, the media landscape is awash with stories about the manouvres of the rival groupings- FONKAR, GAMES, OLONKAR, SADAM and now Change Mills. The FONKAR boys have increased their cries about what they regard as the intimidation they are suffering at the hands of their rivals, GAME. Given the heat surrounding the campaign for the minds of delegates, cynics foresee breaches of public order when the Brong Ahafo Regional capital hosts the large turnout of party faithful. The entry of Nana Konadu Agyeman Rawlings into the race for the candidacy of the party for the 2012 polls has raised the temperature of the NDC to what many consider as an all-time high. With the founder announcing the mother of all boom speeches at the Sunyani congress, against the backdrop of the party leadership�s intent to pull the brakes on him, Ghanaians would have a good political entertainment in July.