Ghana's total oil revenues, based on an average daily production of 84,737 barrels at an estimated price of 100 dollars a barrel, is forecast at GH�1.25 billion for 2011, Dr Kwabena Duffuor, Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, said on Thursday.
Oil revenue projection in the 2011 budget presented to Parliament in November 2010, was based on an oil price assumption of 70 dollars per barrel as well as an average production level of 79,945 barrels per day.
Presenting a supplementary budget to Parliament in Accra, Dr Duffuor said the amount, which included the share of Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), had been revised upwards from GH�584 million to GH�1,250.8, equivalent of 2.2 per cent of GDP.
�Of this amount the Benchmark Revenue is estimated at GH�923.4 million. The remaining is the amount due the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation as its equity and cash ceded to it,� he said.
He said total revenue and grants had been revised upwards by GH�1.366 billion to GH�11.967 billion. Tax revenue is also expected to go up from GH�7,712.5 million to GH�8,527.1 million.
Dr Duffuor said with further improvements in these administrative measures, it was expected that the 2011 revenue yields would be higher than what was estimated in the 2011 Budget Statement and Economic Policy.
In view of this and based on the performance of personal income, self-employed and company taxes in 2010, as well as the revisions to oil revenue, direct taxes had been revised upwards from GH�3,334.8 million to GH�3,935.4 million.
Of this amount, royalties and income tax from oil was estimated at GH�805.0 million, he said. In this same vein, indirect tax estimates had been revised upwards from GH�2,393.1 million to GH�2,500.9 million while international trade taxes would go up from GH�1,335.9 million to GH�1,411.3 million.
Dr Duffuor said similarly, based on the revisions to the oil price assumption and estimated production, government�s 13.75 per cent carried and participating interests in oil had been revised upwards by GH�183.6 million.
In addition, proceeds from the sale of shares in Anglogold Ashanti issued in lieu of royalty payments amounting to GH�306.1 million expected in 2010, were received in January 2011.
�These two factors have led to a revision in non-tax revenue estimates for 2011 from GH�1,355.7 million to GH�1,845.4 million.�
Dr Duffuor said grant disbursements from the country�s development partners had been revised upwards from GH�1,301.6 million to GH�1,346.5 million due to exchange rate variations.
The Minister also sought Parliament�s approval for proposals that would enable the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning to determine the proportions of the oil money to be allocated as Annual Budget Funding Amount, Stabilization Fund, Heritage Fund, and the amount of carried and additional participation interest to be ceded to GNPC for the 2011 fiscal year.
He said for each quarter, 30 per cent of the oil receipts due to the Ghana Petroleum Funds should be transferred into the Ghana Heritage Fund with the remaining 70 per cent transferred into the Ghana Stabilization Fund.
Besides, the cash or equivalence in barrels of oil ceded to GNPC should be 40 per cent of the net cash flow from carried and participation interests after deducting the equity financing cost of the National Oil Company.
Dr Duffuor said following the revisions government�s revised macroeconomic targets for the 2011 budget with real GDP growth (excluding oil) of 7.5 per cent and (including oil) of 14.4 per cent.
He further stated that overall fiscal deficit had been revised from 4.1 per cent to 5.1 per cent of GDP, while end of year inflation was forecast to end the year at nine per cent, up from the projected 8.5 per cent, gross international reserves of not less than three months of import cover of goods and services.
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