Folks the level of distress I have seen expressed by some sympathizers of the NDC at the outcome of the Kumawu by-elections smacks perhaps a total lack of appreciation of what actually transpired in Kumawu yesterday.
The election is about numbers and it’s a numbers game to fully understand what happened in Kumawu you just need to go beyond the numbers and see what the voters are actually trying to communicate.
The NDC garnered 3,723 votes as against the 2,439 it garnered in 2020 this represents an increase of 1,284 more votes.
The NPP on the other hand got 15,264 representing an increase of just 304 votes from the last elections.
Using the Kumawu case as a model, assuming every Constituency in Ashanti in the 2020 elections is going to give the NDC 1,200 more votes in 2024, there are 47 Constituencies multiplied that 1200 and that gives us 56,400 additional votes for NDC in Ashanti.
Now let’s assume that Ashanti is a testing ground for the NPP strongholds, so let’s assume Eastern, Bono, Ahafo, Western and Central would also follow Ashanti Regions' footsteps and also gives the NDC 1200 additional votes per Constituency.
We are looking at almost 200,000 additional votes in the NPP-dominated Regions.
Now let’s come to the NDC strongholds, if the NDC is increasing it’s votes by 1200 in the NPP’s Strongholds, then how many votes will it increase in its strongholds?
To be very conservative in this analysis, assuming NDC’s strongholds are also doing the same 1200 additional votes per Constituency( assuming the voter apathy is the same across the Country)
This brings us to a universal analysis of votes per Constituency for the NDC and 304 votes for the NPP.
(1200 X 275) will give you 330,000 votes for the NDC.
Then ( 304x275) will us 83,600 for the NPP.
Now here’s where the sweetness of the pudding is, let’s take the 2020 election results of the NPP and the NDC and add the model additional votes to it and see how that affects the outcome of the elections.
With a margin of error of (+or-0.05) that takes the 2020 election results to 48.7% for the NPP 48.2% for the NDC and that would take the elections to a run-off.
The second assumption is if the voter apathy in the NDC stronghold is twice that in the NPP stronghold that gives an average additional vote of 2400 per constituency in the NDC strongholds ceteris paribus, using the same universal analysis that takes the additional votes for the NDC to about 850,000( assuming a 50/50 stronghold ratio)
Adding 850,000 to 2020 figures takes the NDC to 50.08 leaving the NPP at 49.1%.
The point is to forget about the vote buying and the machinations, yesterday’s elections was a total failure for the NPP Government, if by moving the entire Government and Party machinery to Kumawu with millions of cedis earmarked and distributed for vote buying, if the NPP were able to add only an additional 304 votes to their votes in 2020 and the NDC with nothing added a whopping 1284, then send a strong message that the NDC is on the road to victory in 2024.
Bear in mind 2024, they cannot move an entire Government and Party machinery to every Constituency and the level of casualties they would suffer across the board would not be mitigated in such a coordinated manner as was done in Kumawu, they sensed an imminent catastrophe and they responded with an aggressive vote buying technique and that could only earn them just 304 additional votes….God save them in 2024!!!
This election was a victory for the NDC!
Source: Mensah Thompson
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