The latest pre-election analysis by Patriotic Professional Integrated Ghana (PPI-GHANA), a non-governmental organization reveals that president Akufo-Addo is likely to obtain 54% of the presidential votes in the upcoming December polls. PPI-GHANA examined election statistics from 1992 to 2016 and the performance of President Akufo-Addo’s government relative to former president John Mahama’s.
Presidential election statistics in Ghana show that ruling parties may record a reduction in votes in the second term. The average vote reduction in the 2nd term of a ruling party before 2016 was 2.75 percentage points. Going by this trend the NPP would be expected to obtain about 51% in 2020. However, data also shows that the ruling party’s votes could increase after 4years even when the opposition presents the same candidate. The ruling party in 2012 obtained 50.7% compared to 50.2% in 2008. The NPP could therefore obtain 54% in 2020.
If we analyse the chances of the candidates of the 2020 presidential elections, the following comes to light. Former President John Mahama’s votes decreased by 6.2 percentage points in his 2nd consecutive attempt to be elected president, while president Akufo-Addo’s votes decreased by 2.1 percentage points in his 2nd consecutive attempt in 2012. This shows that President Akufo-Addo is a stronger and more appealing candidate than John Mahama. In the 2016 presidential elections, the vote difference between president Akufo-Addo and John Mahama was 9.2 percentage points. This makes it a herculean task for Mahama to turn the tables. Ghana’s election history does not show that an opposition candidate contesting against the same ruling party candidate the 2nd time can come back from 9 percentage points lower in the previous election to beat the incumbent. Former president John E.A. Mills contesting against former president Kufuor the 2nd time in 2004 appreciated by 1.5 percentage points. From this perspective, John Mahama is highly unlikely to win the 2020 presidential election.
The achievements of President Akufo-Addo, with their direct impact on the lives of the people over the past 4 years favour his re-election bid. The flagship free SHS policy has benefited 1.3 million students. The majority of students, as well as their parents, guardians, and family members of such students, are very likely to reward the Akufo-Addo and NPP government with another term of office.
The flagship planting for food and jobs policy has provided support to more than 1.5 million farmers, the majority of whom are likely to remember the president and NPP in the December polls. The majority of the 100,000 young people employed under NABCO, the over 100,000 nursing and teacher trainees who received an allowance in 2019 in addition those who sought admission in 2020, as well as their families; the over 90,000 health workers who had jobs under the current administration are very likely to retain the NPP government. The majority of individuals who have benefited from the Akufo-Addo government’s stimulus package or financial support for SMEs are also highly likely to give president Akufo-Addo one more term.
Other interventions such as the free water and electricity, tax exemption for health workers, stable power supply, government’s impressive management of COVID-19 in Ghana and revamped NHIS are highly likely to influence votes for the NPP. People in over 200 districts where road construction is completed or ongoing and those in 6 newly created regions may also consider the NPP in the December polls.
The NDC’s higher premium on promises instead of their achievements is likely to affect their chances in the upcoming polls. While John Mahama may have gained popularity among Okada riders, his position on legalization of Okada business may make him unpopular among the middle class. Corruption allegations trumpeted by the opposition against the president have not been substantiated, and may therefore be judged as an attempt by the opposition to equalise. On the back of John Mahama’s record in corruption, the NDC is unlikely to influence votes significantly to turn the tables in their favour as Mahama’s government was plagued by a litany of corruption cases with allegations of corruption against Mahama.
Considering that John Mahama obtained 44.5% in 2016 as an incumbent with all its advantages, it is highly unlikely for Mahama to win the 2020 presidential elections as president Akufo-Addo’s lowest performance, even in opposition has been 47.7%.
In conclusion, we predict from our analysis that president Akufo-Addo is highly likely to clinch victory in the December 2020 polls with at least 54% of votes. We project that John Mahama is unlikely to increase his 2016 votes by more than 1 percentage point in 2020, and may have a decreased the percentage of votes.
Source: Patriotic Professional Integrated Ghana
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