Fitch Downgrades Ghana�s Credit Ratings

Fitch Ratings downgrades Ghana�s credit outlook from stable to negative as the country�s fiscal deficit is severely deteriorating. The downgrade released February 15, 2013, according to the ratings agency, was due to the �severe deterioration in the fiscal deficit� which hit 12.1% of GDP in the run up to the December 2012 election. Ghana overshoot its 2012 budget deficit target almost 100% as the country spent more than the revenue it had. Ghana�s total revenue and grants in 2012 amounted to GH�16.1 billion (22.3% of GDP) against a budget estimate of GH�16.9 billion, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) reported February 13, 2013. The country�s expenditures including arrears clearance and commitments totalled GH�24.8 billion (34.5% of GDP), 14.7% higher than the budget target. �This is nearly double the government�s target of 6.7% set in July�s supplementary budget and well above the initial budget of 4.8% agreed at the start of the year,� said Fitch in a statement. According to Fitch, the deterioration suggests a �serious loss of fiscal control and reduced credibility�. It however affirmed Ghana�s long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at �B+�. The agency has also affirmed the Short-term IDR at �B� and Country Ceiling at �B+�. Fitch believes government�s �ambitious but realistic fiscal consolidation plan� which is evidently being effectively implemented will strengthen the fiscal control. Over the medium term, it says the new oil and gas sector has the potential to boost Ghana�s economic output, diversify the economy and strengthen the country�s public and external balance sheets. In Fitch�s view, Ghana�s GDP growth remains robust, in excess of 7% and growth prospects will depend on oil production coming on stream as anticipated, increasing to 120,000 barrels a day in 2013 and to 600,000 by 2018. �All these factors should eventually strengthen Ghana�s creditworthiness,� said Fitch. The continued development of the gold sector and further investment in infrastructure will also hand the country a boost in fiscal economic growth. Fitch disclosed that a special report focusing on Ghana�s budget and the prospects for government finances entitled �Ghana: The State of Public Finances�, will be published shortly.