Budget Realistic But Unambitious � IEA

The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) has described the 2015 budget statement presented to Parliament by the Minister of Finance as realistic but not ambitious. At a press briefing in Accra yesterday, a Senior Economist at the IEA, Dr John Kwakye, who acted as the spokesman, said the budget, in its annual time frame could not be expected to transform the economy and address its underlying structural weaknesses although it might have such intentions in a medium-term time frame. No economic growth Dr Kwakye pointed out that the targeted growth rate of 3.9 per cent which is inclusive of oil for 2015, was disappointingly low. �It is not clear what informed this target except that it is attributed to fiscal stabilisation. But we know also that public investment is low�in fact, it is lower than the amount that is spent on interest payment. This does not promote growth,� he stressed. According to him, the growth projection marginally exceeded the rate of population growth, implying that much was not being added to the country�s per capita income. �While gas production is expected to give some impetus to overall growth in 2016 and 2017, the non-oil growth projections are still disappointingly low. The sources of growth remain mining, oil and services, which do not generate enough employment,� he said. He noted that though the decision by the government to freeze net public employment was part of the stabilisation measures, it was not good news for the teeming unemployed and cautioned that the freeze should not deprive the public sector of much needed skills and expertise. Weak structure of economy Explaining the IEA�s position further, Dr Kwakye said the underlying fundamental challenges facing the economy were its weak structure, characterised by over-dependence on primary exports as well as a weak industrial base and its associated high import dependence. He said because the country had failed to consolidate macroeconomic stability the budget could not afford to be growth-oriented. Good ideas Dr Kwakye described the government�s decision to establish an EXIM Bank to promote non-traditional exports as a good idea in principle because that should help address a fundamental weakness of the economy which was the over-dependence on low-value primary exports. He said the proposed Ghana Industrial Bank (GIB) to support local industries was also a good idea in principle, particularly because access to credit had been one of the key obstacles facing local industries, recalling that the IEA had advocated a financial scheme to support them so that they could be competitive How different? According to Dr Kwakye, the Agriculture Development Bank, the National Investment Bank, the Bank for Housing and Construction were created for similar purposes but along the line they abandoned their original mandates and became typical commercial banks.�So, the question is how the proposed GIB is going to be different.� The budget, Dr Kwakye posited, rightly sought to increase the government�s revenue but doing so through numerous tax increases was not the right way. Ghanaians, he said, were already over-taxed and, therefore, described the 17.5 special petroleum tax as �ill advised�.