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No incumbent president has lost re-election in the 4th Republic. No party has gone beyond two terms in the 4th Republic. No candidate has lost on the 3rd try. No candidate has won against an opponent he lost to previously. These key precedents basically lead to a tie, unless of course, Nana Akufo-Addo indeed did not win as some believe the Supreme Court case showed. Anyhow, what may be the tie-breaker between Nana and President John Mahama in 2016? Given this background, I attempt to look at objective reasons as to who is likely to lose, in regards to the 2016 elections. Surely, the NDC has some advantages, the biggest of which is incumbency and the suspected support of the EC. However, as we saw in 2000, when the people really want change, nothing can stop them. And, I believe tiredness of the current problems and government and a consequent desire for change for progress will be all the people want in 2016. So, here are the Top 10 reasons why the evidence says Mahama and the NDC government will be sent packing in 2016, in descending order of importance. # 10 � Mahama Misunderstands what happened in 2012 � I have heard even some NPP folks worry and the President himself crow about how he used just 3 months to win the last election so this means the next one should be easier. On the contrary, after the shock and sympathy of President Mills� still suspicious death, the long and drawn out funeral, the lack of time for Mr. Mahama to upset a lot of people, the berserk spending spree he went on, as evidenced by the record-setting unplanned budget deficit in 2012 and the dwindled cash flow since to meet even meet public payrolls, having a longer time to govern is rather exposing Mr. Mahama and his team�s unprecedented ineffectiveness. # 9 � President Mahama underestimates Ghanaians� expectations � Listening to parts of this man�s speech at the NDC Delegates� Congress, it is clear he thinks all he needs to do is to enumerate the projects he has started and he is automatically great. However, anyone can use our oil find to borrow us to the hilt as this government has done at an unprecedented level, �blow� most of it and still have a lot of projects to talk about. Dancing to �y3ntie obia�, after announcing another inflated project of $29 million refurbishment of the Kumasi Airport to celebrate will not cut it because discerning Ghanaians know even Woyome got more for no work done. After all, Ghanaians also know we now have GH�60 billion debts and growing instead of GH�10 billion that President Kufuor left us, with no discernible growth in productive capacity created to pay for it. # 8 � Promise and Fail � this president just can�t stop promising an end to all our problems and turnarounds to our unprecedented malaise, to no avail. They have even promised to now stop promising. Good for them. Ghanaians know that these are just hollow promises. # 7 � Intervention Programmes Destroyed � So many of the unprecedented programmes the last NPP government put in place to help the people have been destroyed under this government. No amount of last minute copy-cat �free education� put in place by this Mahama government will trick the people because they know how much have been destroyed and how fake this election year offer is. # 6 � Corruption � Ghanaians know that the corruption of today is record-setting, with the perpetrators walking free. Unprecedented artificial projects inflation, unprecedented ghost names on government payrolls that has even historically friendly governments holding back aid to our nation for the first time, coupled with unprecedented economic retrogression, will not be rewarded by the majority patriotic Ghanaian voter in 2016. Forbes recently had Ghana as one of the worst run economies in the world and corruption and wrong priorities are the main causes. The (P)NDC and Mahama cannot escape accounting for this situation, having ruled Ghana about half of our history since independence and the fact that corruption has never been much worse. About a week ago, I published the first part of this piece, which looked at about half of the objective reasons why President Mahama and the NDC are likely to lose, in regards to the 2016 elections. As I stated then and it is worth repeating, 2016 is in many ways will be the most unusual yet in our 4th Republican dispensation. Some evidence says NDC could win. However, in spite of some clear advantages, the biggest of which is incumbency and the suspected support of the EC, as we saw in 2000 and in 2008, when the people really want change and especially after 8 years of governance, it seems nothing gets in the way of that change. This is change phenomenon is why I believe the NDC will lose power in 2016. Here are the final 5 of the Top 10 reasons why the evidence says Mahama and the NDC government will be sent packing in 2016, in descending order of importance. # 5 � Last Minute Make Believe Progress � President Mahama being an upstart president, who rode President Mills� death, sharing Ghana�s borrowed funds like Father Christmas and needing an unjust Supreme Court verdict in a convincing case of electoral malfeasance, recently promised that the economy will conveniently turn around by December 2015, just in time to try to presumably convince Ghanaians again that his is an effective government. However, Ghanaians will be likely be bit harder to persuade that 3 years of hardships interspersed with 1 election year sharing of our own misappropriated funds is a fair deal and a logical proof of progress. This 3 for 1 is logically a bad deal which will probably be rejected in 2016, having been the same kind of deal offered in 2012. # 4 � Unprecedented Debt � After the economic collapse of 2000 left by the last NDC government and the certification of that mess by Ghana�s qualification as a HIPC nation, followed by the prudent economic management of the last NPP government, the debt stock left for the NDC government in 2008 was just about GH�10 billion. In 6 years, with 2 more years to go, our debt stock sits at over GH�60 billion. Our debt repayment obligations are more than government could invest in crucially needed infrastructural development already in this year�s budget. Not even running to the IMF to teach it some prudence in managing the economy and to loan us some more money, will offer enough short term respite like Mahama and the NDC are looking for to squeak through 2016 with. What is worse is that this debt has mostly been looted and not been used to create a real capacity for the economy to take off and effectively to aid repayments. Ghanaians know or will get to know that if we continue with this approach for another 4 years, we will go over the cliff. In fact, there is much trepidation as to our ability to survive another 2 year of Mahama�s unprecedented borrowing. # 3 � 19 Years of Rawlings� (P)NDC, 6 Years of Mahama/Mills with 2 to go, Compared to Kufuor�s 8 and Ghanaians are simply tired of this Government � It is clear to most Ghanaians that the (P)NDC just can�t do the job. Regardless of any similarities of concern to us all between the two parties and what we dislike about the NPP, the fact is that many of us know by now that the NPP is the best hope, if we want to develop Ghana. Ghanaians tired of a far superior NPP government after 8 years. How much more tired are they not of a record-setting bumbling government after 8 years? # 2 � 2013 Election Petition � Ghanaians are simply smarter in regards to electoral fraud and will not be had again. The votes should not be even close and the avenues for stealing should be plugged. Gone should be days when there is palpable lack of transparency, placing our destiny in the hands of any man or woman and risking our nation�s peace because of lack of faith in our election systems. Ghanaians know that the current President and parliament will not fix this problem and will want a new team to come in and ensure we reform to avoid risking our peace over elections again. # 1 � The Economy � Some have mentioned the presence of American-type malls, planes, etcetera as signs that we are developing. As taught in Economics of Developing Countries 101, a key characteristic of under-developed countries is not a lack of rich people. Rather, it is a lack of a wide and thriving middle class as well as greater income disparities. Therefore, a key in measuring real growth or retrogression in economies like Ghana�s is in measuring how the middle class has grown and thrived or not during the last 8 years. On that score, there is little doubt about the unprecedented poor performance of this government. Edifices and planes for the rich while so many more grow poorer and lose hope, lead only to more crime, etcetera and are not real signs of progress. Ghanaians know exactly how their own pockets feel and will vote accordingly in 2016, regardless of whatever beautiful things they see others own or enjoy around them. With sustained real inflation, while productive capacities remain stagnant along with Mahama�s unprecedented debts which we have no idea how we will be able to repay, swallowing our future away, oil prices falling below what may be enough to repay the cost of production, the current economy is worse than it was in 2000. Majority of our patriots want to continue with this performance? Don�t count on that.