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First, it was a politically childish spat with the influential former President and hitherto one of the leading stakeholders of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Olusegun Obasanjo, then an open face-to-face confrontation with the globally acclaimed former Central Bank Governor, Sanusi Lamidu Sanusi over an alleged missing US$20bn of oil revenue and then to the factional and sectarian free-for-all within the ruling PDP leading to disaffection and mass defections of senators, governors and other leading members to the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC).

To every keen observer of the Nigerian political situation, the signs were abundantly clear that President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan’s time was up and that he was only buying time with the spur-of-the-moment decision of the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) to postpone the Presidential election for another six weeks in order to allow for sufficient time for the security services in conjunction with the multi-national forces of Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Benin to combat Boko Haram insurgents in the troubled north-east of the country.

Right from the beginning of his presidency, the odds were perilously against President Jonathan. His stubborn refusal to comply with the unwritten rule of North/South, Muslim/Christian power rotation that was agreed by the PDP and the Nigerian political and military elites after the sudden death of the brutal military dictator, General Sani Abacha and the inception of democratic rule in 1999, sounded the final death knell of his now manifestly disastrous political career.

Other issues that coalesced to ensure his precipitous ouster from power in the just- ended elections included widespread and unbridled corruption, cronyism and nepotism, economic mismanagement, profligacy, ungovernable pride and arrogance of power from him, his wife and members of their inner circle. President Jonathan’s pervasive sins and ills against the Nigerian state were simply unpardonable and they were unbecoming of a modern democratic ruler. No wonder he has earned the dubious distinction of being the first and so far the only incumbent President in Nigerian political history to be defeated in a democratic election.

Defying the PDP Rotational Convention
After almost four decades of military dictatorship and authoritarian regimes mostly dominated by Hausa/Fulani from the North, the Nigerian political and military elites in the dying embers of the 1990s came into a consensus on the need for political power to rotate between the Muslim-dominated North and the Christian South. Those who agreed with this convention included the then interim head of state, General Abdulsalami Abubakar; former President, General Olusegun Obasanjo; former head of state, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB); former Defense Minister, General Theophilus Danjuma; the influential Emir of Kano, Ado Bayero and many others. The rationale for this unwritten pact in the twilight of military rule in 1999 is to end once and for all the one-sided political domination of the country by the Hausa/Fulani/Muslims of the North, thereby reducing the political instability that had then characterized the Nigerian state since independence from the British colonial rule in 1960. The power rotation accord was also to lessen the polarization of the Nigerian society where dangerous politics of identity, pitting the mostly Christian South with the Muslim North, seemed to have no end in sight.

Thus, the first election that was organized under this consensus and alliance of the elites in 1999 resulted in the victory of General Olusegun Obasanjo, who strangely enjoyed the support of key Northern politicians and military heavyweights including General Babangida, who has gained the ‘enviable’ record of being Nigeria’s only ‘political Maradona’. Prior to that, Obasanjo was a political prisoner under the brutal military regime of General Sani Abacha. With this in mind, Obasanjo after his eight years as President and the first beneficiary of the elites’ rotational consensus also made relentless efforts to ensure that the political grounds were fertile for the late President Umar Musa Yar’Adua, a northerner to succeed him. However, after just three years of his possible eight years as President, Yar’Adua unfortunately died and was immediately succeeded by his Vice-President, Goodluck Jonathan in line with the Nigerian Constitution. President Jonathan, a Southerner later refused to comply with the rotational pact agreed earlier by the Nigerian elites to hand over power to a northern politician. This was the beginning of the problems of President Jonathan.

Childish row with Obasanjo

As the first President to benefit from the North/South and Muslim/Christian rotational agreement within the PDP, influential former President Obasanjo was infuriated by President Jonathan’s obstinacy to relinquish the leadership of PDP and by extension the Presidency to a northerner as he himself has vowed before his election in 2011. Obasanjo and other PDP major stakeholders in both the North and South of the country reluctantly agreed to support President Jonathan’s election bid after he exhausted what remained of the term of the late President Yar’Adua on condition that he was going to rule for only one term and then relinquish power to a northern Muslim in line with the rotation and in order to maintain national cohesion, unity and stability. However, President Jonathan reneged on that promise, bringing him in a dangerous collision with not only Obasanjo but almost the entire political and military elites that dominated post-independent Nigerian politics.

President Jonathan even had the impudence to reply a letter written to him by Obasanjo to remind him of his commitment towards the rotational system and other national issues bordering on insecurity, corruption, nepotism, cronyism and serious division within the ruling PDP.

This created a huge chasm between the sitting President and President Obasanjo, his hitherto political godfather and so far the most successful President of Nigeria since 1999, when the PDP was formed.

As a result, Obasanjo led a relentless political and electoral campaign against President Jonathan and even shred his PDP membership card publicly, in fact, on national television. Obasanjo did not hide his open support for General Muhammadu Buhari against his former Protégé as the election results from his Yoruba ethnic group testified. Again, Obasanjo was said to have single-handedly rallied international support, especially from the Western world for the candidature of General Buhari and cleared any doubt about the democratic credentials of the former military strongman.


The Missing US$20bn
Sanusi Lamidu Sanusi, an aristocrat and former Nigerian Central Bank Governor blew the whistle on an alleged missing US$20bn of Nigeria’s oil revenue. Instead of investigating the claims of the respected royal from the North, President Jonathan rather suspended him from his position and threatened him with prosecution on a trump- up charge of ‘financial recklessness’.

Lamidu, the wealthy and noble man, who is now the Emir of Kano, responded by accusing the government of President Jonathan of pervasive corruption and warned of a possible court action against the government. Despite Lamidu’s insistence of lack of transparency in the whole oil sector, President Jonathan could not carry out his threat on the former Central Bank Governor because of the fear of his powerful family in the North and the possible backlash from the entire Hausa/Fulani group of the North where Lamidu enjoys overwhelming prominence and support.

Corruption, Nepotism and Cronyism
The Nigerian resources or the ‘national cake’ as is being popularly referred to, is being distributed by the government of President Jonathan unevenly, favoring members of his Ijaw ethnic group, his cronies, political hangers-on and sycophants. Many powerful members of his government came from the deep South of the country where he also comes from, alienating Nigerians from other regions especially the North. Even his wife, Patience Jonathan was unilaterally appointed as a senior civil servant in her husband’s home region of Bayelsa State although she is not known to have ever had any career in civil service. Her pomposity and arrogance of power were part of the undoing of her husband who was unable or unwilling to rein her in. Also, militant leaders from the Niger Delta region became filthy rich as they were given major security contracts by the Jonathan administration to safeguard the country’s oil installations. An agreement of some US$500m a year was signed with the war lords and their combatants in the region to help end the crisis in the oil rich Niger Delta. Many Nigerians see them as leeches on the nation’s resources taking advantage of the ‘generosity’ and ‘sympathy’ of President Jonathan to blackmail the Nigerian state.

Insensitive and politically short-sighted President Jonathan allowed his cronies to shower Faith Sakwe, his first child with about 80 luxury vehicles among other gifts during her wedding. This clearly spelt out the political epitaph of President Jonathan and pushed him into the league of the most ostentatious and insensitive African leaders.
Apart from the above, there were widespread cases of corruption, cronyism and nepotism right under the nose of President Jonathan and Nigerian’s rightly punished him by voting him out of power to atone for the wonton dissipation of state resources.

Boko Haram and General Insecurity
Arguably, one can say that the most potent political issue that played out against President Jonathan was the much-talked about insecurity in Northern Nigerian brought about by the militant Boko Haram who operated in the north-east of the country. The President’s handling of the insurgency especially the kidnapping of 200 school girls in Chibok was the last straw that broke the camel’s back as almost all Nigerians felt insecure and frustrated with their President who seemed clueless and disinterested in effectively managing the situation. The daily reports of bombings, abductions and killings across Nigeria did not help matters. The Nigerian state was virtually brought to its knees by Boko Haram in the last five years. However, President Goodluck suddenly in the last few weeks to the elections saw the need to clamp down on the insurgents by seeking support from the neighboring countries of Chad, Cameroon, Benin and Niger, but it was too little, too late to protect his integrity and therefore his presidency.

The Economy
While Nigeria maintained its newly-acquired status as the biggest economy in Africa after rebasing of its national accounts in April 2014, ordinary people hardly feel the impact of this expanding economy. There have been widespread complaints of hardship especially as oil prices have plummeted by about 50 per cent in recent months. Nigerians are feeling the pinch of the almost 10 per cent budget cut that was brought about by the falling oil prices and the fast depreciating currency. The Nigerian Naira has lost about 20 per cent of its value according to Reuters just few months before the Presidential election. Inequality is the order of the day with over 80 per cent of oil revenue monopolized by the less than one per cent ruling elites.

The sheer Need for Change
After almost sixteen years of PDP rule with very little to show to the Nigerian people, the country was ripe for a change of leadership and General Muhammadu Buhari became the beneficiary. Nigerians were just tired of the status quo and wanted a redeemer to salvage the situation, no matter who that person may be. President Goodluck Jonathan could do nothing to sway them from their clarion call for change after 16 years of uninterrupted rule from moribund PDP.

Reforms of the INEC
Other interesting reason why Jonathan had lost the elections was his exemplary decision to play the game fairly by empowering and reforming the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) to effectively carry out its refereeing job. Professor Attahiru Muhammadu Jega was given all the needed support and resources to independently employ his staff across the country to assist him in the conduct of the election. It therefore became very difficult for PDP to resort to what they know best: rigging, when the going gets tough.

The Buhari Factor
Despites his reported cases of human rights abuses as a military ruler, General Muhammadu Buhari himself over the many decades he has been in public service has exhibited rigid anti-corruption tendencies that has made him the preferred candidate with integrity to unseat the ‘rotten’ administration of Jonathan. After assuming the high office of head of state of Nigeria between 1983 -1985, he said while declaring his assets in the heated President campaign that he owns three houses: One each in Kano and Kaduna and the other in Daura, his home town in the Katsina State.

General Buhari endeared himself to the poor and ordinary Nigerians because he has no any known business or oil rig or even a petro station as a former President and former Minister of Petroleum and is said to be living on his pension. His record of jailing corrupt politicians and executing hardened criminals during his military rule was an added advantage as Nigerians across the length and breadth of the country are frustrated and seemed held captive by all manner of wrong doers in the society and therefore yearning for a strong and decisive leader who could restore normalcy to the troubled state.

There is no wonder that they ignored the propaganda against Buhari’s advancing age, health and alleged human right abuses in the early 1980s when he was the head of state and came out in droves to vote for him and ushered their country into a new democratic era where it is now possible for an incumbent government or President to be defeated at the polls.

Impact on Ghana
While Ghana and Nigeria share almost identical characteristics in every respect, the election of General Buhari does not necessarily mean that President John Dramani Mahama would lose the next elections slated for 2016. Currently, acute power crisis or Dumsor, corruption and the economy seem to be the major campaign messages of the opposition NPP for the next year’s election. However, none of these issues can be compared to the menace of Boko Haram that has caused the death of over 10,000 Nigerians and displaced some 3million. Besides, the President has been up and doing in trying to find lasting solutions to these three problems. While the Boko Haram insurgency was and is still unresolved even as Nigerians were casting their votes, President Mahama and his new Minister of Power, Dr. Kwabena Donkor have given a deadline of December 2015 to fully resolve the energy challenges facing the country, one full year before the general elections.

Again, on the economy, the President has already secured the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to support the macro-economic stabilization efforts already going on and the fruits will begin manifesting next year when the nation will be cruising for general elections. On corruption, there have been commissions/committees, trials, investigations of major corruption cases, something that is absent in the Nigerian equation. More so, the President has sent specific directive for wrongly paid monies on high profile corruption cases like those of SADA and GYEEDA to be retrieved and the exercise is going through the legal process under the aegis of the Attorney General and the Bank of Ghana.

Further, PDP has ruled Nigeria for 16 uninterrupted years and so Nigerians were yearning for a change by whatever democratic means possible, while in Ghana, the current NDC government has ruled for only six years, and so the dynamics are different.

In all, President Mahama is unlikely to meet the fate of Goodluck Jonathan next year given the efforts he and his government are putting to resolve the immediate concerns of Ghanaians in the area of energy, economy and corruption, which seem to be the major planks of the opposition message for the 2016 general elections in Ghana.