* NPP to retain the seat IF they form a strategic alliance with PNC, others
* NDC to win the seat back with over 50% of votes IF they nominate a very popular and appealing candidate
* PNC will not win the by-election but may have a significant say in who wins it
_ _ There is an impending by-election to be held in the Talensi constituency of the Upper East Region. This follows the installation of the incumbent MP Hon. Robert Nachinab Doameng Mosore as chief of Tongo Traditional area and his subsequent resignation from Parliament as announced to members of the august house by the Speaker Rt. Hon. Edward Korbly Doe Adzaho on Tuesday, 9th June 2015.
The Electoral Commission of Ghana, as per Article 112 (5) of the 1992 Constitution, has to organise a by-election within 30 days of the seat being declared vacant. Whiles we wait for the EC to fix a date for the by-election, join us as we look at past parliamentary election results and trends from the Talensi constituency; and also to project who -- which party -- is more likely to win the by-election.
A LOOK AT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE PREVIOUS MPs
Since the first parliament of the fourth republic, Talensi constituency had had only two members of parliament -- John Akologu Tia of NDC and Robert Nachinab Doameng Mosore of NPP.
* John Akologu Tia, NDC (1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008) Until his shocking but not unexpected defeat in the December 2012 elections, John Akologu Tia was one of the five (5) "Mugabes" in the Ghanaian parliament. Hon. Tia was first elected in the 1992 elections and had been re-elected in four subsequent elections that followed.
Detailed results of the 1992 elections from the EC are not available but records have shown that John Tia was elected with over 1,000 votes more than his closest rival in that election. In the 1996 election, he was re-elected, winning more than 71% of total valid votes of 23,815. There were three contestants in that election and the runner-up, Hajia Mariam Abagna Khaldi of the NPP could only poll 24.18%.
Just in four years, Hon. John Tia saw his votes slashed almost by half from 16,978 in 1996 to 9,655 in the 2000 general elections -- more than 43% reduction. This figure of 9,655 votes represented 45.31% of 21,311 valid votes. As if that was not worse enough, there was a further 1,309 dip in 2004, when he polled 8,346 votes representing 37.68% of 22,148 valid votes.
Over this period, the other parties' candidates -- especially that of the NPP and the PNC -- improved their performances consistently and considerably. In 2004, Hon. John Tia was only saved by a strong and equal showing by three other contestants; and more crucial was a split in the NPP's votes after Robert Nachinab Doameng Mosore broke ranks with the party to stand as Independent candidate following a disagreement over the constituency primaries to elect parliamentary candidate for the party. Hajia Mariam Abagna Khaldi of the NPP had 24.17% of valid votes whiles Robert Nachinab Doameng Mosore as independent candidate had 20.69%. The PNC's Samuel Kuug Narook had 13.55% in that election.
In 2008, Hon. Tia improved on his 2004 performance by polling 9,548 votes (representing 44.23% of valid votes) but could not obtain an absolute majority. Even though the other parties -- the NPP and PNC -- also improved on their performances, they were not enough to dethrone Hon. John Akologu Tia. The NPP's unanimously acclaimed candidate, Sebastian Bisnab Tibil could only poll 34.73% whiles the PNC had 20.36%, rising from 13.55% in 2004.
In the 2012 elections, however, Hon. John Akologu Tia "met his meeter". He still polled his usual over 9,000 votes but that was not enough to give him the simple plurality he had always had since 2000 as Robert Mosore came back 8-years later, but this time on the ticket of the NPP, to dislodge Hon. John Tia as MP for Talensi for the first in this forth republic. Hon. John Tia had 9,119 votes representing 33.22% of 27,450 valid votes cast whiles Hon. Mosore had 11,380 votes representing 41.46% of valid votes with the PNC again increasing their share of valid votes to 23.39%.
Before the NDC primaries to elect candidates for the 2012 general elections, there were calls by youth groups within the party in the Talensi constituency calling on John Tia to step aside for a fresh face on the ticket of the party in order to retain the seat for the party. The youth even threatened to vote "skirt and blouse" should he be retained as candidate for the party but Hon. John Tia called their bluff and went ahead to contest the primaries which he won.
Well, the results after the 2012 elections clearly vindicated the youth groups as Hon John Akologu Tia indeed lost the seat, for the first time, to the NPP's Robert Nachinab Doameng Mosore by over 2,000 votes.
* Robert Nachinab Doameng Mosore, NPP (2012)
The now Tongorana Kubilsong Nalebegtan -- whose installation as Paramount Chief of Tongo Traditional Area in April 2015 and subsequent resignation as MP for Talensi necessitate the yet-to-be-fixed by-election -- first stood as Independent candidate for the Talensi seat in 2004. This followed his boycott of the NPP constituency primary held to elect candidate for the party's ticket in the lead up to the 2004 elections.
In that election, he polled 4,582 votes which represents 20.69% of the valid votes but this was not enough to beat the then incumbent John Akologu Tia of the NDC and the NPP's candidate Hajia Mariam Abagna Khaldi who polled 37.68% and 24.17% respectively. Though Hon. Mosore came distant third, his participation was a clear statement of claim to the Talensi seat as he drew votes from all the parties that earlier contested the 2000 elections in the constituencyDue to his participation, John Tia's votes reduced by 1,309 and so were the votes of the NPP's Hajia Khaldi by 2,253 and the PNC by 340. In percentage terms, Hon Mosore's almost 21% share of valid votes resulted in about 8%, 11% and 2% reductions in the NDC, NPP and PNC candidates' shares in 2004 respectively.
For some unknown reasons (maybe, being sanctioned by the party for going independent in 2004), he did not contest the NPP's 2008 primaries and the NPP candidate in that election -- Sebastian Bisnab Tibil -- was unanimously acclaimed but could not get the required votes to beat John Tia to the seat. Robert Mosore however got the nod to contest on the NPP's ticket in the 2012 elections and emerged the winner after the polls even though with just simple plurality. Hon. Mosore came first with 11,380 votes, which represents 41.46%. He was followed by the NDC's and the then incumbent John Akologu Tia who had 33.22%, the PNC at third position with 23.39%, followed by the CPP and the PPP candidates who both had about one percent each.
TRENDS AND ANALYSIS
Apart from the 1996 election -- which seems distant now -- John Akologu Tia since the 2000 elections had had less than 50% of the votes in the last four elections but had managed to win the first three of them. He had on the average about 40% of the vote with a growth rate of -9.52% over that period; though significant part of that was due to the huge fall (over 43%) in the 2000 election. From 2000, it was clear that the popularity of John Tia was waning and the ability to win the seat was no more dependent on him but largely on other factors which played out to gift him victory but the NDC still stuck to him until the party came to a crashing defeat in 2012.
For instance, whiles the presidential candidates keep improving the NDC's dominance in the Talensi constituency -- that is from 43.94% in 2000 to 48.35% in 2004, 53.42% in 2008 and 63.35% in 2012 -- the party's performance in the parliamentary elections was continuously dwindling over the period until they lost the sit to the NPP in 2012.
The NPP with its various candidates on the other hand won averagely about 32% with a growth rate of 4.32% over the last four elections. It was only in 2012 that its candidate was able to cross the 40% mark (41.46% in 2012).
The inability of parliamentary candidates of the two major parties to win with absolute majority was clearly due to a strong showing by the PNC candidates over the years as the party has seen its share of votes increased consistently from 4.53% in 1996 to 23.39% in 2012 with an average increase of 4.72% every subsequent election.
CONCLUSIONS
* Chances of the PNC
The PNC will NOT win the by-election but IF they file a candidate, they may have a huge impact on who between the candidates of the two major parties gets elected.
* Chances of the NDC
Over 30% of those who voted for John Mahama (His Excellency) in the 2012 election voted for other parliamentary candidates apart from John Akologu Tia who was the NDC's parliamentary candidate -- a clear case of "skirt and blouse" voting which was also the case in the 2004 and 2008 elections as well.
This constituency -- clearly from the outcome of the presidential results over the years -- is an ?NDC constituency?. If they nominate a candidate who is very popular and appealing to the electorates within the constituency, then for the first time since 1996, we MIGHT see an NDC candidate winning the by-election with an absolute majority (more than 50% of valid votes).
* Chances of the NPP
The NPP and the former MP Hon. Robert Mosore seemed to have benefitted largely from the dwindling fortunes of John Akologu Tia to win the seat in 2012. But now that the former MP has become the Paramount Chief of the area, some will take voting for an NPP candidate as a way of pledging their loyalty and allegiance to him; and that may enhance the chances of whoever gets the nod to stand on the party's ticket. However, as to whether that will result in a win for the NPP candidate is not clear.
If the NPP can enter into some strategic alliance with the PNC -- and may be other smaller parties who would like to file candidates -- I will stick my neck out and say they will retain the seat after the by-election.
The writer, JUSTICE MONAKK, is an Election Research Analyst. For further enquiries, contact the following -- Phone: 0279-531277, Email: [email protected] or log on to: www.facebook/GHElectionsFile
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