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DAILY GUIDE has stumbled on a survey report by the Bureau of National Investigations (BNI), with support from a pollster (name withheld), which casts doubts about President John Mahama and his ruling National Democratic Congress’ (NDC’s) ability to win the upcoming general election.

The report, which has since been kept under wraps, was compiled in March this year and paints a gloomy picture about the NDC’s chances in this year’s elections.

It was carried out in all the 10 regions of the country and at the end of the exercise, the report indicated that the presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, is ahead of his NDC contender.

Nana Akufo-Addo is likely to emerge a winner of the 2016 general election, scoring 51.85% of the polls, followed by President John Dramani Mahama (of the NDC) with 41.52%.

Ivor Greenstreet of the Convention People’s Party (CPP) had 2.10% while the People’s National Convention (PNC) candidate, Dr Edward Nasigri Mahama, bagged 1.98% of the total votes cast, with the other parties sharing the remaining 2.55%.

Factors

The issues raised in the survey which seem to have dropped the president’s ratings were unemployment, general economic hardship, collapse of businesses and high incidence of corruption among government officials and a host of others.

Regional Breakdown

Interestingly, in the Ashanti Region which is known to be the stronghold of the NPP, where the NDC has promised to sweep one million votes, the BNI report indicates that the opposition party bagged 76.1% of the respondent votes, followed by President Mahama and the NDC with 18.95% while the CPP had 2.05% and 1.0% for the PNC, with the remaining 1.0% going to the undecided and other political parties.

In the case of the Eastern Region, where the NDC has also said it would split the votes (50-50), the NPP had 57.1% while the NDC obtained 39.8%, with the CPP and the PNC taking 1.0% each while the remaining 1.1% went to the other smaller parties and those who were undecided.

For the Central Region, the NPP upstaged the NDC with 50.25% of the votes while the NDC had 42.0%, with the CPP managing 1.8% and 0.95% going to the PNC. The remaining 3.0% was shared among the other parties.

The battle in the Western Region, which has always been one of the deciding regions in Ghana’s elections, promises to be interesting as the NPP annexed 44.5% while the NDC had 41.0% of the respondents’ votes. The CPP took home 1.5%, 0.5% for the PNC, while a whopping 12.5% went to the other parties and those who had not decided on any party yet.

Even though the NPP is expected to make some significant gains in the NDC ‘World Bank’ (the Volta Region), where it (NPP) has been walloped over the years, the polls indicated that the NDC would still cruise home with 62.09%. The respondents said they would vote for the ruling party, with the NPP receiving 14.1% as the CPP and the PNC struggled to find their feet with 1.01% and 0.9% respectively while 21.9% of the respondents were undecided.

Another place to watch is the Brong-Ahafo Region – one of the most crucial regions in any given election.

In this region, the report says 47.0% of the respondents would vote for the NPP while the NDC comes closely with 44.7%; the PNC makes an appreciation of 2.2% as against the CPP’s 1.1%, and 5.0% left for the undecided and other parties.

Apart from the Volta Region, the NDC is expected to bank its hopes on the northern sectors, if anything at all.

In the Northern Region, however, the NDC is expected to beat the NPP with 55.9% while the NPP is likely to show a strong force with 40.1% as the PNC takes home 1.5%. The CPP would be making do with 0.55 and 2.0% would be left for the undecided and others.

For the Upper East Region, the BNI research has it that the NDC would secure 57.7%, with the NPP managing to bag 32.4% while the PNC comes into the race with its best bet of 3.9% and the CPP with some 0.9%. The rest of the 5.1% is reserved for the undecided and others.

In the Upper West Region, the case would be no different from the Upper East since the NDC is expected to record 60.3% as the NPP gets 32.7, with the PNC showing a bit of strength with 3.0% and 0.5% for the CPP.

The battle in the Greater Accra Region is expected to be very interesting, with the opposition expected to recapture the coastal belt with some 52.1% and the NDC garnering 44.0% while the CPP follows with 1.9% and 1.0% for the PNC. The remaining 1.0% is reserved for the undecided and other parties.

For the president to catch up, the report suggested a number of activities, including touring the country and sharing freebies like outboard motors to fishermen, among others. More anon.