MPC Assesses Ghana�s Current Economic Environment

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana has maintained its Monetary Policy Rate at 12.5 per cent, the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Mr. Kwesi Amissah Arthur has announced. Addressing newsmen in Accra, yesterday, after the 46th meeting of the MPC, Mr Amissah-Arthur said the decision to maintain the policy rate was taken in the light of the committee�s assessment of the current economic environment. Mr Amissah-Arthur noted that despite the deterioration in the global economy since July, this year, growth in emerging and developing economies remained strong though with emerging signs of overheating, He said the pace of economic activity in Ghana had picked up, consumer confidence improved and expectations about macro-economic conditions positive, while the exchange rate remained stable and external sector developments continued to be favourable. On inflation, Mr Amissah-Arthur said expectations were well-anchored and had stabilized along the single-digit path, supported by favourable food prices, adding that inflation rate had continued to decline and that the 9 per cent target for the year was achievable. Despite the improved macro-economic fundamentals, he noted, upside risks to inflation were emerging in the form of the adjustment in utility tariffs, wage pressures and other oil-induced and external pressures that might result in the overheating of the economy. Reviewing developments in the monetary and banking sector, Mr Amissah-Arthur said, broad money supply including foreign currency deposits (M2+) increased between December 2010 and July 2011, expanding by 12.4 per cent to GH�15.4 billion by the end of July 2011 while on a year-on-year basis, M2+ grew by 42.6 per cent in July, up from 40.2 per cent in June. He said the banking sector continued to be sound, with most banks well-capitalised although the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) declined from 19.9 per cent in June 2010 to 17.5 per cent at end of June 2011, but remained well above the statutory threshold of 10 per cent. On Government�s fiscal operations, Mr Amissah-Arthur said total revenue and grants realized in the first-seven months of 2011 amounted to GHC5.8 billion, compared to a target of GHC5.7 billion while international trade taxes comprising import duty, import Value Added Tax (TAX), petroleum taxes and import NHIL totalled GHC1.9 billion, exceeding the target by 7.7 per cent. In addition, he said, income and property taxes amounted to GHC1.9 billion, falling short of the expected target by 12.4 per cent, while indirect domestic taxes, made up of domestic VAT, Excise duty, Communication Service Tax (CST) and NHIL amounted to GHC679.2 million, 5.9 per cent below its target. Furthermore, he indicated, Non-Tax Revenue amounted to GH�485.8 million, representing 69,6 per cent of budgeted target while grants amounted to GH�260.4 million, representing 75.8 per cent of the budgeted target in addition to other receipts amounting to GH�556.5 million. Mr Amissah-Arthur said total expenditure including wages and salaries, and related expenditures (excluding foreign-financed capital expenditure) amounted to GH�6.9 billion for the first-seven months of 2011, with overall fiscal operations from January to July 2011, resulting in a narrow budget deficit of GH�1.12 billion, compared with a target deficit of GH�849.8 million. He indicated that the fiscal operations were financed by net domestic borrowing of GH�1.04 billion and net foreign inflows of GH�84.3 million, the net domestic financing representing 92.7 per cent of budgeted target for the period. Mr Amissah-Arthur said the total public debt at the end of July 2011 was GH�21.6 billion, equivalent to 40.5 per cent of GDP, up from 38.1 per cent at the end of December 2010. This, he said, represented a stock domestic debt of GH�10.9 billion, up from GH�8.3 billion in December 2010 and an external debt stock of US$7.1 billion at the end of July 2011, increasing from US$6.3 billion at the end of December 2010.