A report by Fitch Group, a UK-based research company, has predicted that the flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, will win the December 7 presidential election.
The report, however, envisages that his eventual declaration as the president-elect will be made after a run-off.
This comes just a day after the Economic Intelligence issued a similar report, predicting a one-touch victory for the NPP flagbearer, as well as a win of majority of the seats in Parliament.
The Fitch report makes reference to a recent online poll by management consultancy, Goodman AMC, which puts Nana Akufo-Addo at 49%, with President Mahama of the ruling National Democratic Congress trailing with 44%, thus making it impossible for the incumbent to secure the 50%-plus-one-vote needed to avoid a second-round run-off.
The report predicts that the NPP flagbearer will likely attract the remainder of the opposition vote in the second round and take the NPP to power for the first time since 2008.
The report cited recent developments in the country, including the erratic power supply, known as "Dumsor", and high cost of living as some of the determining factors that would influence Ghanaians into voting for the Nana Akufo-Addo.
According to Fitch, apart from the "Dumsor" menace being a deciding factor, the recent strikes by workers of the Electricity Company of Ghana over the NDC government's plans to privatize the state-run company would also be a key factor.
"As power shortages are a tangible hardship felt by households every day, we expect that this will be the primary concern of voters. In the Goodman AMC poll, 43% of respondents cited these as a primary concern," the report said.
The report added: "Economic troubles will play in opposition's favour. Over the past several years ,the Ghanaian economy has suffered a number of macroeconomic setbacks, with real GDP growth slowing from an average 9.7% over the four years from 2010 to 2013, to just 3.8% from 2014 to 2016 and we expect that this will also support the opposition at the polls.
Ghana's budget and current account deficits widened, the currency sold off and inflation skyrocketed, forcing the government to go to the IMF for assistance in late 2014. Finance minister Seth Terkper has insisted in recent media statements that this was solely the fault of a slump in commodity prices."
Another development, the report noted, that would play in NPP's favour would be the third programme review under the IMF, which forced the NDC government to push back a proposed Eurobond issuance.
The Fitch report makes reference to the fact that Nana Akufo-Addo had assured that the next NPP government would respect any agreement with the IMF and support investor confidence, although he has said that he would renegotiate the terms if necessary.
"On August 2, parliament passed a bill allowing the government to borrow up to 5% of the previous year's revenues from the central bank. This is less than the 10% previously allowed, but the IMF had made it a condition of its lending that the facility was removed entirely.
In the wake of the bill's passing, investor fears over the potential that Ghana would fail its review was a likely reason for required yields on the proposed Eurobond jumping," the report notes.
Source: Daily Statesman
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I tot de polls will report something gud abt de government.
THIS GARBA.GE DREAMS. THE NDC WILL WIN THE ELECTION ON ONE TOUCH-BELIEVE IT OR NOT.
Is lie the is no such prediction by Fitch
Gabby and his use.less Stateman, we've been here before. you will be disappointed.
I WILL VOTE FOR JM
WHERE IS THE DUMSOR FITCH IS TALKING ABOUT?.IT IS FIXED AND NOT COMING BACK.AND WHO IS GOING TO FINISH THE ONGOING PROJECTS? I AM 100% SURE THEY WILL BE ABANDONED WHEN REGIME CHANGE IS OCCURRED AND I THINK IS NOT GOING TO HAPPENED UNDER MAHAMA REGIME.
Misleading report by unemployed NPP guys in UK How many Ghanaians have access to computer in order to take part in such online polls
This fitch report is another mirage report in the desert because it is totally WRONG review !!!!!! misleading and contradictory and does not reflect what is on the ground ; if fitch wants to know the true state of affairs they should get their intelligence officers in Ghana to stop sitting their air-condition offices and cars and go to the ground and do proper research and stop this cheap misinformation research; the fact is there will will not be a run off in this 2016 elections because credible intelligence not paid intelligence shows Nana Addo to win the next elections outright; there will not be a run off because the conditions existing in 2012 in which there was this rigged round off was plain fraud ;the facts were exhibited at the curt hearing ; Nana Addo won that election but denied these same judges who today Jon Mahama spits in their faces as corrupt judges besides this time there will be no Court case ; somebody prepared to bet $1000 that what fitch has predicted will never come to pass; IT IS NANA ADDO ALL THE WAY !!!!!!!!!!!
Ghanaaians have made their mind for CHANGE,nad nothing can stop that.VOTE NANA/BAWUMIA for a world class economy,rule of law,real development in freedom,tax reliefs,massive employment,private sector empowerment and a beautiful governance.